Douglas Maraun

• Regionaler Klimawandel
• Extremniederschläge
• Klimavariabilität und Klimaänderungen
• Evaluierung von Klimamodellen
• Regionalisierung von Klimaszenarien

• Leitautor im Kapitel "Linking global to regional climate change", Arbeitsgruppe 1 des sechsten Sachstandsberichts des Weltklimarats IPCC.
• Ko-Leiter der EURO-CORDEX Arbeitsgruppen zu statistischem Downscaling und Distillation von Klimainformation (seit 2016)
• Vorsitzender des Europäischen Forschungsnetzwerkes VALUE (EU COST Action ES1102, 2012-2015)
• Mitglied des Exekutivkomitees von CORDEX-ESD, der Initiative des Weltklimaforschungsprogramms zu statistischem Downscaling (seit 2013)
• Fakultätsmitglied des Doktoratskollegs Klimawandel (seit 2017)
• Leiter des internationalen Forschungsprojekts CE:LLO zur Modellierung von Compound Extremereignissen (Volkswagenstiftung, 2014-2017)
• Leiter des Internationalen Forschungsprojekts PLEIADES zur Regionalmodellierung von Extremniederschlägen (Volkswagenstiftung, 2012-2014)
• Leiter der Deutsch-Russischen Forschungsgruppe EUREX zur Untersuchung von Extremereignissen in Nordeuropa und Russland (Helmholtzgemeinschaft, 2012-2015)
• Ko-Leiter des Teilprojekts Extremereignisse in Hessen des INKLIM-Projekts (Hessisches Landesministerium für Umwelt und Geologie, 2009-2014)
• Mitglied des Editorial Board von Nonlinear Processes in Geophyiscs (2010-2015), Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2016-) and Climatic Change (2016-)
• Review Editor der Fachzeitschrift Climate Research (2013-2016)

Begutachtete Publikationen in internationalen Fachzeitschriften

2018

[43] C. Manning, M. Widmann, E. Bevacqua, A.F. Van Loon, D. Maraun and M. Vrac: Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Timescales. J. Hydrometeorol., online first, 2018.

[42] J.M. Gutiérrez, D. Maraun, M. Widmann, R. Huth, E. Hertig, R. Benestad, O . Roessler, J. Wibig, R. Wilcke, S. Kotlarski, D. San Martín, S. Herrera, J . Bedia, A. Casanueva, R. Manzanas, M. Iturbide, M. Vrac, M. Dubrovsky, J . Ribalaygua, J. Pórtoles, O. Räty, J. Räisänen, B. Hingray, D. Raynaud, M.J. Casado, P. Ramos, T. Zerenner, M. Turco, T. Bosshard, P. Štěpánek, J. Bartholy, R. Pongracz, D.E. Keller, A.M. Fischer, R.M. Cardoso, P.M.M. Soares, B. Czernecki, C. Pagé. An intercomparison of a large ensemble of statistical downscaling methods over Europe: results from the VALUE perfect predictor cross‐validation experiment. Int. J. Climatol., online first, 2018.

[41] E. Hertig, D. Maraun, J. Bartholy, R. Pongracz, M. Vrac, I. Mares, J.M. Gutierrez, J. Wibig, A. Casanueva and P.M.M. Soares: Comparison of statistical downscaling methods with respect to extreme events over Europe: Validation results from the perfect predictor experiment of the COST Action VALUE. Int. J. Climatol., online first, 2018.

2017

[40] D. Maraun, T.G. Shepherd, M. Widmann, G. Zappa, D. Walton, J.M. Gutierrez, S. Hagemann, I. Richter, P.M.M. Soares, A. Hall and L.O. Mearns: Perspective: Towards process informed bias correction of climate change simulations, Nat. Clim. Change 7, 764-773, 2017.

[39] D. Maraun, R. Huth, J.M. Gutierrez, D. San Martin, M. Dubrovsky, A. Fischer, E. Hertig, P.M. Soares, J. Bartholy, R. Pongracz, M. Widmann, M.J. Casado, P. Ramos and J. Bedia: The VALUE perfect predictor experiment: evaluation of temporal variability, Int. J. Climatol., online first, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5222, 2017.

[38] O. Rössler, A. M. Fischer, H. Huebener, D. Maraun, R.E. Benestad, P. Christodoulides, P.M.M. Soares, R.M. Cardoso, C. Pagé, H. Kanamaru, F. Kreienkamp and D. Vlachogiannis: Challenges to link climate change data provision and user needs – perspective from the COST-action VALUE, Int. J. Climatol., online first, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5060, 2017.

[37] E. Bevacqua, D. Maraun, I. Hobaeck Haff, M. Widmann and M. Vrac: Multivariate statistical modelling of compound events via pair-copula constructions: analysis of floods in Ravenna (Italy), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2701–2723, 2017.

[36] C. Volosciuk, D. Maraun, M. Vrac and M. Widmann: A combined statistical bias correction and stochastic downscaling method for precipitation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1693-1719, 2017.

2016

[35] D. Maraun: reply to comment on 'Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping and Downscaling. Revisiting the Inflation Issue', J. Climate 29, 8669-8671, 2016.

[34] D. Maraun: Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations - a Critical Review, Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2:2011-220, 2016.

[33] C. Volosciuk, D. Maraun, V.A. Semenov, N. Tilinina, S.K. Ghulev and M. Latif, Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe. Sci. Rep. 6, 32450, 2016 (link).

2015

[32] E.P. Meredith, D. Maraun, V.A. Semenov and W. Park: Evidence for added value of convection-permitting mdels for studying changes in extreme precipitation, J. Geophys. Res. 120: 12500-12513, 2015.

[31] D. Maraun and M. Widmann: The representation of location by a regional climate model in complex terrain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19: 3449-3456, 2015.

[30] E.P. Meredith, V.A. Semenov, D. Maraun, W. Park and A.V. Chernokulsky: Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krysk precipitation extreme, Nature Geoscience 8: 615-619, 2015 (Highlighted by Nature, also see News and Views article by F.E.L. Otto).

[29] I. Hobaeck-Haff, A. Frigessi and D. Maraun: How well do regional climate models simulate the spatial dependence of precipitation? An application of pair-copula constructions, J. Geophys. Res. 120(7): 2624-2646, 2015.

[28] C. Volosciuk, D. Maraun, V. Semenov and W. Park. Extreme Precipitation in an Atmosphere General Circulation Model: Impact of Horizontal and Vertical Model Resolution,  J. Climate 28(3): 1184-1205, 2015.

[27] D. Maraun, M. Widmann, J.M. Gutierrez, S. Kotlarski, R.E. Chandler, E. Hertig, J. Wibig, R. Huth and R. Wilcke, VALUE - A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies, Earth's Future 3(1): 1-14, 2015.

2014

[26] J.M. Eden, M. Widmann, D. Maraun and M. Vrac: Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 11040-11053, 2014.

[25] G. Wong, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, M. Widmann, J.M. Eden and T. Kent. Stochastic model output statistics for bias correcting and downscaling precipitation including extremes, J. Climate 27:6940-6959, 2014.

[24] D. Maraun. Reply to comment on "Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping and Downscaling. Revisiting the Inflation Issue". J. Climate 27:1821-1825, 2014.

2013

[23] A.Y. Karpechko, D. Maraun and V. Eyring. Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression. J. Atmos.Sci. 70(12): 3959-3976, 2013.

[22] D. Maraun. Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping and Downscaling. Revisiting the Inflation Issue. J. Climate 26:2137-2143, 2013.

[21] D. Maraun. When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett. 8 014004, 2013.

2012

[20] A. Schindler, D. Maraun, A. Toreti and J. Luterbacher. Changes in the annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the British Isles within the 21st century. Env. Res. Lett. 7 044029, 2012. Als Highlight ausgewählt.

[19] A. Schindler, D. Maraun and J. Luterbacher: Validation of the present day annual cycle in heavy precipitation over the British Islands simulated by 14 RCMs. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D18107, 2012.

[18] D. Maraun: Nonstationarities of regional climate model biases in European seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06706, 2012

[17] D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn and H.W. Rust: The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part II: climate model validation, Clim. Dynam. 39:287-301, 2012

2011

[16] D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn and H.W. Rust: The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part I: observed spatio-temporal relations, Clim. Dynam. 36(1-2), 261-275, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9, 2011

2010

[15] D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A.M. Ireson, R.E. Chandler, E.J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H.W. Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themessl, V.K.C. Venema, K.P. Chun, C.M. Goodess, R.G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac and I. Thiele-Eich: Precipitation Downscaling under climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG3003, DOI: 10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010

[14] A. Toreti, F.G. Kuglisch, E. Xoplaki, D. Maraun, H. Wanner and J. Luterbacher: Characterization of extreme winter precipitation in the Mediterranean and associated anomalous atmospheric patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10, 1037-1050, 2010

[13] D. Maraun, H.W. Rust and T.J. Osborn: Synoptic airflow and UK daily precipitation extremes. Development and validation of a vector generalised linear model , Extremes 13, 133-153, DOI: 10.1007/s10687-010-0102-x, 2010

2009

[12] H.W. Rust, D. Maraun and T.J. Osborn: Modelling Seasonality in Extreme Precipitation. A UK case study, European Physical Journal Special Topics 174, 99-111, 2009

[11] D. Maraun, H.W. Rust and T.J. Osborn: The annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the UK: a model based on extreme value statistics, Int. J. Climatol.29(12), 1731-1744, 2009

2008

[10] D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn and N.P. Gillett: United Kingdom Daily Precipitation Intensity: Improved Early Data, Error Estimates and an Update from 2000 to 2006, Int. J. Climatol. 28(6), 833-842, 2008

2007

[9] B. Schaefli, D. Maraun and M. Holschneider: What drives high flow events in the Swiss Alps? Recent developments in wavelet spectral analysis and their application to hydrology, Adv. Wat. Resour. 30(12), 2511-2525 , 2007

NB! There are errors in ref [19] in the paper. The correct reference is the previous publication [8] in this list here:

[8] D. Maraun, J. Kurths and M. Holschneider: Nonstationary Gaussian Processes in Wavelet Domain: Synthesis, Estimation and Significance Testing. Phys. Rev. E 75, 016707, 2007

2006

[7] J. Saynisch, J. Kurths and D. Maraun: A Conceptual ENSO Model under Realistic Noise Forcing, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13, 275-285, 2006

2005

[6] D. Maraun and J. Kurths: Epochs of Phase Coherence between El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15709, doi:10.1029/2005GL023225, 2005

2004

[5] S. Rahmstorf, D. Archer, D.S. Ebel, O. Eugster, J. Jouzel, D. Maraun, U. Neu, G.A. Schmidt, J. Severinghaus, A.J. Weaver and J. Zachos: Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate", Eos, Trans. AGU, 85(48), 511, 2004

[4] D. Maraun, H.W. Rust and J. Timmer: Tempting long-memory. On the interpretation of DFA results, Nonlin. Proc. Geoph. 11(4), 495-503, 2004

[3] D. Maraun and J. Kurths: Cross Wavelet Analysis. Significance Testing and Pitfalls, Nonlin. Proc. Geoph. 11(4), 505-514, 2004

[2] S. Rahmstorf, D. Archer, D.S. Ebel, O. Eugster, J. Jouzel, D. Maraun, U. Neu, G.A. Schmidt, J. Severinghaus, A.J. Weaver and J. Zachos: Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate, Eos, Trans. AGU, 85(4), 38, 41, 2004

[1] D. Maraun, W. Horbelt, H.W. Rust, J. Timmer, H.P. Happersberger and F. Drepper: Identification of rate constants and non-observable absorption spectra in nonlinear biochemical reaction dynamics, Int. J. Bif. Chaos 14, 2081-2092, 2004



Weitere Publikationen

[6] D. Maraun and M. Widmann: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, 2018.

[5] J. Wibig, D. Maraun, R. Benestad, E. Kjellström, P. Lorenz and O.B. Christensen: Projected Change - Models and Methodology. In: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Springer, 2015.

[4] D. Maraun, J. Kurths and M. Holschneider: Continuous wavelet spectral analysis of climate dynamics. In: Analysis and Control of Complex Nonlinear Processes in Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Lecture Notes in Complex Systems, Vol. 5, 2007

[3] D. Maraun: What Can We Learn from Climate Data? Methods for Fluctuation, Time/Scale and Phase Analysis, Doktorarbeit, Universität Potsdam, 2006

[2] P.M. Crowley, D. Maraun and D. Mayes: How hard is the euro area core? A wavelet analysis of growth cycles in Germany, France and Italy. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, 18, 2006

[1] D. Maraun: Parameterschätzung in nichtlinearen Proteinfaltungsdynamiken, Diplomarbeit, Universität Freiburg, 2002

Ausbildung

Beruflicher Werdegang